New NOAA research predicts an increase in active Atlantic hurricane seasons

Multiple cyclones occurred at the same time in 2020. Credit: NOAA

Tropical cyclones are among the most deadly and costly natural disasters that affect the United States and many other countries each year. This has led the scientific community to prioritize improving tropical cyclone prediction and the understanding of how tropical cyclone activity has changed and will change in the future. In a new study published in Science Advances, NOAA and partner researchers project an increase in the variability of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, leading to more active and inactive hurricane seasons and less near-normal seasons.

The study investigates how the frequency and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the North Atlantic might change in the future. ACE is the measure of total seasonal activity used by NOAA scientists to look into past and future changes in tropical cyclone activity, focusing on changes that occur between or over two or more years and the impact of a changing climate. Researchers examine why there have been so many active seasons in recent years. The results show both unusually active and inactive hurricane seasons have become more common since the 1990s, and computer models predict that by the middle of this century, the variability could increase by an additional 36%, with the biggest increase expected to occur in the central tropical North Atlantic, which refers to the mid-section of the North Atlantic Ocean where tropical storms and hurricanes most frequently form.