Very warm water off the west coast is not always associated with a moderate or strong El Nino. It is usually associated with a strong positive phase Pacific Decadal Oscillation. (+PDO) The +PDO was at all time high historic levels last December through March. It is only weakening now. Strong positive phase PDO Winter's make for warm surfing conditions off the SOCAL coast Dec thru March and a warm dry west coast winters as well.